Saturday, April 4, 2009

Recession...Iowa City Style



Yes, we are in a recession and boy am I sick of hearing that. Believe me, I know there are real problems with this economy, but the self fulfilling prophecy aspect of talking about it is another problem altogether.

Let's see what a recession actually means in Iowa City. I have tracked home sales prices in Johnson County since 1981. My method is to track the average home sales price, the marketing time, the change from last year and the list price to sale price ratio. Over time this seems to tell us about the health of the local market.

In 2007, a non-recession year, the average sales price of a home was $185,418. They sold for 97.7% of what people were asking for them and sold in about 112 days. This was up 3.2% from 2006.

In 2008, a recession year, the average sales price of a home was $183,850. Yes, that's lower than 2007, but only by 0.8%! In 2007 we sold 2,631 homes and in the depth of a recession in 2008 we still sold 2,363 homes.

We can see there is a negative effect going on in the market, but it is thankfully mild. We wish it were this good nationwide, but if we can't have that, let's just be thankful we live in Iowa City!

Real Estate Terminology 101


I talk daily with people interested in leasing property and have discovered that the way brokers price property for lease is not very helpful to the public. The small business owner, or start-up company, just wants to know what the rent is for a particular suite, but we in the industry price it by the foot per year on a triple net basis. Now, unless you have done this before, what I just said may sound a little familiar, but is not really very helpful.
So, let’s get some common language. And, understand that we’re not totally deranged, nor are we out of touch with the public. There are really good reasons to quote leasing prices the way we do, you just need a yellow pad and a calculator to answer the original question of “How much is that space for lease?”

Commercial leases can be gross, net, triple net, absolute triple net or full service leases, or combinations of these types. Let’s look at them and define some terms. There are several costs associated with leasing commercial property. There is the amount of money the owner wants to lease the space. There is the amount of real estate taxes applicable to the building, or suite within a building. There is also the premium amount of building insurance for the building. These are the leasing costs and the last three are collectively called net charges, or triple (because there are three of them) nets, or pass through fees, or simply CAMS. There are also operational costs that can come into play such as janitorial expense or utility costs. They all mean different things and all are important information for the prospective lessee to have.
Let me just line these terms out so we can look at them:

Triple net lease:............................................... The lessee (you) pays an amount per month to the building owner, and in addition to that, pays a pro-rata share of the building taxes, the building insurance and a pro-rata share of the common area maintenance, or CAM. This is quoted as a price per foot per year not including the additional prorated costs. We do this to make it easy to compare one space to another in terms of the net rent cost.

Absolute triple net lease:................................. The lessee pays all of the costs of a triple net lease, but also pays for the cost of maintaining the building including roof, structure, heating and cooling plants and other features of the building. This is typically used with a long term single tenant building and is the closest thing to owning a building and still be leasing!

Gross Lease:.................................................... The lessee pays a monthly amount to the building owner including the building taxes, insurance and CAM in one payment. This may be quoted as a monthly rate (helpful), or as an annual price per foot (accurate, but not helpful). This one is the most like the type of rent quoted for an apartment, or rental house.

Full service lease:............................................. This one is also a hybrid type of lease. The Lessee pays one fee and it includes all the items in a gross lease, but also includes much of the cost of operating your business such as utilities and janitorial costs. This would be used when it is impractical to separate the associated costs of owning and operating a commercial suite such as an executive suite complex, or if you are renting a single office in the back of a larger company, like a law office or something like that.

The next logical question is what does all this stuff cost? Our answer, in keeping with our tradition, is not too helpful. We say “that all depends on where you are and what building you are referring to.” But, let me go way out on a limb and make an attempt at actually being helpful. You will understand that as soon as I quote some prices, or facts and figures, they will be wrong in some situation!

Here goes. In the Iowa City – Coralville area, Net rent ranges from $12.00 to $14.00 per foot per year for new, first generation space on a busy street. If you are near the Coral Ridge Mall, or other attractive feature, it can go as high as double these rates. Real Estate taxes run about $3.00 to $5.00 per foot per year, building insurance runs around $0.25 to $0.50 per foot per year, and CAM, or common area maintenance runs from $0.75 to $1.50 per foot per year depending on how much it snowed. There can also be “mall charges” if you’re in a shopping center, but let’s leave that for later. The operations type costs can run around $1.00 per foot per year for janitorial expense and $1.50 to $2.50 per foot per year for utilities. These utility numbers went out the window when gas was north of $4.00 per foot, but have come back since oil prices have moderated.

So much for the monthly pricing part of a lease. There’s more. There are base terms, renewal terms, CPI increases, expense stops, non-compete covenants, signage issues, interior improvements, first generation, second generation space, class A, B, C and D space, early termination clauses, guarantees, net leasable, net usable, load factors, and yes, there can be more. These terms are more about the crafting of the lease over time and not about pricing, so let’s leave them for later.

What does this mean? It means commercial leasing is not a mystery and should be put to the test of comparison. When you make the call to find out how much, expect us to tell you in great detail, how much the space costs. Take notes and don’t get frustrated or feel overwhelmed. When you have the information you can not only determine how much the payment would be for a particular office or commercial suite, you are also armed to compare this suite with others on the market so you know what kind of deal you are getting. You will also sound savvy when you talk to your banker if you rip off some real estate leasing terms.

I hope this essay clarifies the issue somewhat instead of spreading confusion. I think being specific and accurate makes us all better and actually will help your business to succeed!

Thursday, October 9, 2008

Dare we hope?

I ran across this Case-Shiller housing index graph. We are all painfully aware of the current news with failing banks and failing countries! The Dow has lost almost 40% of its value this year and the housing market is taking the blame for it all.
This chart shows the historic values from 1990 to the present, and as we know, the housing market across this country has lost about 17% of it's value this year. But, look at the last 3 ticks. The forecast is going up in 2009 recoving about half of this years loss. No one knows for sure what will happen, but amid all the frightning news it is nice to see something positive. It looks like we may turn this ship around after all and not have to pick out a nice cave to live in!
Through out all of this news, keep in mind that the Iowa City market gained 3% in 2007 over 2006 and it looks like we will have a similar gain in 2008 over 2007.
Stay tuned!

Saturday, October 4, 2008

$700 Billion

I cannot even imagine how much money that is. The real question is will this bail out have the desired effect of liberating the commercial credit markets from non-performing, or under performing "sub prime" loans allowing them to start lending to banks and businesses. And will it happen soon. Another question without an answer is what are the long-term effects of this bail out. Will this fix a current problem and create a long-term one? I don't know the answers to any of these.

What I do know is too many people are talking about this. The problem is on every ones mind. This type of issue can become a self-fulfilling prophecy if left un attended and un addressed. I have also seen commercial lending change even in Iowa City lately. Loans are being scrutinized, and LTV ratios are falling. Easy loans last year are tough loans this year. And, an active real estate market requires available financing. I have also seen business startup and expansion plans be put on hold pending the shakout of this problem.

My hope is that this plan returns liquidity to US credit markets and takes the heat off banks and businesses. I hope that we are able to also drill down through the mortgage backed securities aspect of the bail out to the actual home loans and deal with them on an individual basis. This will require a lot of administration, but it will also protect our $700 Billion investment and will help restore a healthy resale housing market.

This thing is unfolding in real time, so we will all see what heppens very soon. Buckle up.

Friday, August 22, 2008

Jeff joins Lepic-Kroeger Realtors


After 13 years at Coldwell Banker Real Estate Professionals why change companies? I out grew it. CB is a great company to learn the business and they have loads of resources for newer agents.
Lepic-Kroeger offers more oportunities for more experienced agents and as a result of that, has more experienced agents. The agent pool sells more properties and so, this association is better for me and my clients.
There are great agents at both companies and at most companies in Iowa City. I am excited about this move and am energised by it to move to a higher level of professionalism and professionals service.
My new address is 2346 Mormon Trek Blvd, Iowa City, Iowa 52246 and my email (jeff@icrealestate.com) and my cell phone (319-331-6187) are the same.
I'll try to report in more often than every 6 months!

New year, new opportunities

Wow...have I been remiss in posting new material. The market has been so strange and difficult to predict that I just waited on the sidelines and watched the sales to see what was happening. It seems that sales are about the same in 2008 as they were in 2007. This is a good sign. Interest rates are creeping up to just under 7%. This is not a good sign. Home prices are increasing at about a 2%-3% rate over 2007. This is a normal range and is also a good sign. With all these good signs, why do we have the feeling that real estate is in trouble? Real estate is a local phenomenon, but money (interest rates, jobs, wages, prices, oil) are national considerations. We cannot divorce ourselves from the national trends even thougth things are moving along in Iowa City. We pay more for gas, heating, and well, everything. We pay a little more for interest rates, too.

I think people have a lower degree of faith in the future, and want to made darn shure that are getting a good value for their real estate purchase. I do too. Buyers a looking at 12 instead of 3 houses. We have more low offers that in the last decade. Also, for the first time I have seen in Iowa City, buyers are not qualifying for their loans.

This is not all bad. We should be responsible and make sure we are getting value for our purchases. We should be aware that finances are different now than in the past and travel is expensive and we are vulnarable to oil prices. We can still be secure, happy, content and free...and responsible and that is a good thing!

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Home sale prices off 10% for 2008

Yikes! Home prices for 2008 will be down 10% nation wide! Some markets like Miami are down almost 30%, followed by San Francisco which is down by 25%.
Iowa City is somewhat insulated from national trends, but it not immune to the influence of national real estate trends.